SEASONAL PRICE INDICES AND PRICE FORECAST FOR MAIZE IN OGUN STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

The study investigated the accuracy of seasonal price number system in forecasting maize
price. The accuracy of average monthly price forecast was affected by the accuracy of
forecasting annual average price, the length of period into the future for which
forecasting was made and how representative the seasonal indices are for the period for
which the forecast is made. The error of price forecast for the months of August to
November in 1998 based on 1998 (1993 - 1997 average price indices) seasonal price indices,
ranged between 2.22 - 5.8 percent and thus confirms the competitiveness of seasonal
index number forecasting system, given its degree of accuracy.