C&INTEGRATION AND ERROR-CORRECTION MODELUNG (ECM) OF LIVESTOCK POPWLATION IN NIGERIA

Abstract

Time series of data on livestock population that span two decades were used to study the performance of Nigerian ruminant livestock. Co-integration and error correction modeling (EMC) was employed to establish a long-run relationship between livestock population (cattle, sheep and goat) and factors affecting their livestock population, Analysis reveals that all the dependent variables --cattle, sheep and pat population and the independent variables - government expenditure, wag rate, rainfall (proxy for vegetation availability) and prices ‘of livestock were non -stationary but become stationary after first differencing and are counteracted. ECM results further reveal that all independent variables complied with the apriority expectation for cattle and sheep and are all statistically significant for goat. Results show. that all the considered independent variables are major determinants of Nigeria livestock population. Therefore, it is recommended that appropriate policy packages that will ensure sustainable availability of pastures and forages through the establishment of grazing reserves, disease control campaigns, improved breeding stock and provisiotp of infrastructural facilities and credits to the producers be embarked upon.